European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWW pick
56%56%
WW · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 14 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
50%33%
WW · 4 mapsedge WW +17%Just Players · 11 maps
AncientWW ban
50%53%
WW · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Just Players · 13 maps
NukeJust Players ban
33%42%
WW · 2 mapsedge Just Players +9%Just Players · 8 maps
OverpassWW ban
40%60%
WW · 1 mapedge Just Players +20%Just Players · 6 maps
AnubisJust Players pick
50%71%
WW · 2 mapsedge Just Players +21%Just Players · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
WW · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickWW take Mirage
4. PickJust Players take Anubis
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. BanWW remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
WW 69%Just Players 31%
The model gave 69% on WW — the map was taken by Just Players.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
WW 47%Just Players 53%
The model gave 53% on Just Players — the map was taken by WW.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
WW 41%Just Players 59%
The model gave 59% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 55%
Series resultJust Players 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3