WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
50%53%
WW · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 32 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
58%43%
WW · 8 mapsedge WW +15%Black Phoenix · 19 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%52%
WW · 3 mapsedge WW +5%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
44%18%
WW · 5 mapsedge WW +26%Black Phoenix · 13 maps
CacheWW ban
38%64%
WW · 4 mapsedge Black Phoenix +26%Black Phoenix · 10 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix pick
60%63%
WW · 1 mapnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 12 maps
DefaultWW ban
50%56%
WW · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%Black Phoenix · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Cache
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. PickWW take Dust2
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Inferno
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanWW remove Default
DeciderNuke (57% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
WW 44%Black Phoenix 56%
The model gave 56% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by WW.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
WW 67%Black Phoenix 33%
The model gave 67% on WW — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Anubisprediction correct13:3
WW 79%Black Phoenix 21%
The model gave 79% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 52%
Series resultWW 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3