PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
XI#239 in the world · win 13:7series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 13:7
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientXI ban
40%60%
XI · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +20%ASTRAL · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%54%
XI · 2 mapsnearly even -4%ASTRAL · 9 maps
Dust2XI ban
40%30%
XI · 1 mapedge XI +10%ASTRAL · 6 maps
CacheASTRAL ban
50%44%
XI · 0 mapsedge XI +6%ASTRAL · 5 maps
MirageXI ban
50%38%
XI · 0 mapsedge XI +12%ASTRAL · 4 maps
AnubisASTRAL ban
50%43%
XI · 0 mapsedge XI +7%ASTRAL · 3 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
40%33%
XI · 1 mapedge XI +7%ASTRAL · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXI remove Mirage
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. BanXI remove Dust2
4. BanASTRAL remove Anubis
5. BanXI remove Ancient
6. BanASTRAL remove Cache
DeciderNuke (50% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
XI 31%ASTRAL 69%
The model gave 69% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by XI.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 70%
Series resultXI 13:7
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1