ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
XI#218 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukeex-VP.Prodigy ban
50%50%
XI · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
AncientXI pick
43%50%
XI · 3 mapsedge ex-VP.Prodigy +7%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
Dust2ex-VP.Prodigy pick
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge ex-VP.Prodigy +10%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
InfernoXI ban
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge ex-VP.Prodigy +10%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
Overpassex-VP.Prodigy ban
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge ex-VP.Prodigy +10%ex-VP.Prodigy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXI remove Inferno
2. Banex-VP.Prodigy remove Nuke
3. PickXI take Ancient
4. Pickex-VP.Prodigy take Dust2
5. Banex-VP.Prodigy remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
XI 53%ex-VP.Prodigy 47%
The model gave 53% on XI — the map was taken by ex-VP.Prodigy.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
XI 37%ex-VP.Prodigy 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-VP.Prodigy — the map was taken by ex-VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteXI · 53%
Series resultex-VP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2