Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
53%47%
Yawara · 15 mapsedge Yawara +6%Bounty Hunters · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%31%
Yawara · 11 mapsedge Yawara +16%Bounty Hunters · 9 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
25%58%
Yawara · 4 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +33%Bounty Hunters · 15 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
53%42%
Yawara · 11 mapsedge Yawara +11%Bounty Hunters · 8 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%53%
Yawara · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Bounty Hunters · 13 maps
AnubisYawara ban
40%63%
Yawara · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +23%Bounty Hunters · 4 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
57%50%
Yawara · 3 mapsedge Yawara +7%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (47% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Yawara 31%Bounty Hunters 69%
The model gave 69% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Yawara.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
Yawara 18%Bounty Hunters 82%
The model gave 82% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Yawara 55%Bounty Hunters 45%
The model gave 55% on Yawara — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 78%
Series resultBounty Hunters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3