ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#178 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bounty Hunters#109 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Yawara pick
60%50%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Yawara +10%Bounty Hunters · 2 maps
AnubisYawara ban
50%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
33%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +17%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
MirageBounty Hunters ban
50%33%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Yawara +17%Bounty Hunters · 2 maps
AncientBounty Hunters pick
50%60%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
NukeYawara ban
50%60%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickYawara take Dust2
4. PickBounty Hunters take Ancient
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Mirage
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Yawara 63%Bounty Hunters 37%
The model gave 63% on Yawara — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Yawara 37%Bounty Hunters 63%
The model gave 63% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 60%
Series resultBounty Hunters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2