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Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
65%56%
Yawara · 16 mapsedge Yawara +9%Keyd Stars · 14 maps
AncientKeyd Stars pick
40%56%
Yawara · 11 mapsedge Keyd Stars +16%Keyd Stars · 12 maps
MirageYawara pick
67%50%
Yawara · 14 mapsedge Yawara +17%Keyd Stars · 8 maps
AnubisYawara ban
50%63%
Yawara · 6 mapsedge Keyd Stars +13%Keyd Stars · 4 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%43%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Keyd Stars · 10 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
55%40%
Yawara · 7 mapsedge Yawara +15%Keyd Stars · 1 map
OverpassKeyd Stars ban
67%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsedge Yawara +17%Keyd Stars · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Overpass
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (65% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Yawara 69%Keyd Stars 31%
The model gave 69% on Yawara — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Yawara 32%Keyd Stars 68%
The model gave 68% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Yawara.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Yawara 38%Keyd Stars 62%
The model gave 63% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 60%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3