BetBoom Storm Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
VEXA#257 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Yawara pick
60%50%
Yawara · 6 mapsedge Yawara +10%VEXA · 0 maps
InfernoYawara ban
38%50%
Yawara · 4 mapsedge VEXA +12%VEXA · 0 maps
MirageVEXA ban
75%50%
Yawara · 4 mapsedge Yawara +25%VEXA · 0 maps
AncientVEXA pick
33%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsedge VEXA +17%VEXA · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsnearly even +0%VEXA · 0 maps
DefaultVEXA ban
60%50%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Yawara +10%VEXA · 0 maps
OverpassYawara ban
60%50%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Yawara +10%VEXA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Overpass
2. BanVEXA remove Mirage
3. PickYawara take Dust2
4. PickVEXA take Ancient
5. BanVEXA remove Default
6. BanYawara remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed1:13
Yawara 73%VEXA 27%
The model gave 73% on Yawara — the map was taken by VEXA.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Yawara 63%VEXA 37%
The model gave 63% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
Yawara 50%VEXA 50%
The model gave 50% on Yawara — the map was taken by VEXA.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 69%
Series resultVEXA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3