Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DUSTYwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukez to forward pick
40%40%
z to forward · 1 mapnearly even +0%DUSTY · 1 map
AncientDUSTY ban
40%50%
z to forward · 1 mapedge DUSTY +10%DUSTY · 0 maps
Miragez to forward ban
50%40%
z to forward · 0 mapsedge z to forward +10%DUSTY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banz to forward remove Mirage
2. BanDUSTY remove Ancient
3. Pickz to forward take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
z to forward 63%DUSTY 37%
The model gave 63% on z to forward — the map was taken by DUSTY.
Nukeprediction correct0:13
z to forward 47%DUSTY 53%
The model gave 53% on DUSTY — the map was taken by DUSTY.
Model check result
Model favoritez to forward · 50%
Series resultDUSTY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2