ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#192 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
regain#162 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientZomblers pick
50%60%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge regain +10%regain · 1 map
Defaultregain ban
60%50%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%regain · 0 maps
InfernoZomblers ban
50%60%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge regain +10%regain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Inferno
2. Banregain remove Default
3. PickZomblers take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Zomblers 47%regain 53%
The model gave 53% on regain — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Zomblers 53%regain 47%
The model gave 53% on Zomblers — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Zomblers 40%regain 60%
The model gave 60% on regain — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 61%
Series resultZomblers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3