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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 32 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 32 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 31 game
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
70%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 29 games
48%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 24 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
55%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 24 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 22 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 15 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Katsura · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
679 picks · 832 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 560 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 420 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
469 picks · 329 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1140 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 682 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 616 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
393 picks · 1023 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:16
1w Team 70%VP.Prodigy 30%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingv1olent-
53% · 222 games50% · 221 game
Terrorbladecutie
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
49% · 416 games46% · 484 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
53% · 276 games54% · 171 game
Bristlebacktakizawa
Bristleback
Io
Ioswedenstrong
40% · 13 games47% · 57 games
Rubickraregods
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaRein
48% · 169 games52% · 163 games
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct35:11
1w Team 68%VP.Prodigy 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterv1olent-
49% · 261 game50% · 37 games
Miranacutie
Mirana
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
45% · 400 games54% · 110 games
Largotakizawa
Largo
Batrider
Batriderмистер мораль
50% · 326 games51% · 623 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
50% · 277 games53% · 215 games
Marciraregods
Marci
Rubick
RubickRein
52% · 59 games48% · 338 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct49:44
1w Team 70%VP.Prodigy 30%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:06:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
46% · 435 games53% · 290 games
Ursacutie
Ursa
Alchemist
Alchemistv1olent-
46% · 23 games47% · 429 games
Void SpiritSerenada
Void Spirit
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
51% · 197 games52% · 228 games
Tidehuntertakizawa
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
46% · 102 games57% · 90 games
Bounty Hunterraregods
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
49% · 361 game52% · 81 game
RubickJANTER
Rubick
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 83%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3