Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
536 picks · 454 bans
Mars
450 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 544 bans
Bane
395 picks · 283 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
Puck
344 picks · 802 bans
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 549 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:37
5ManMidas 48%simply TOOBASED 52%
The model gave 52% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 37:03.
Game 2prediction correct20:32
5ManMidas 48%simply TOOBASED 52%
The model gave 52% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 28:17.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 52%
Series result5ManMidas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2