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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HunterZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 36 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 18 games
33%

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 12 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 11 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 10 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Lumière · 6 games
33%
Marci
Marcisignature
Lumière · 6 games
67%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
615 picks · 304 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
533 picks · 540 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1106 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
371 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 601 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 158 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 262 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:33
eSpoiled 69%HunterZ 31%
The model gave 69% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by HunterZ in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
47% · 75 games52% · 123 games
Nature's ProphetLumière
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
48% · 348 games41% · 208 games
Storm SpiritBenjimon
Storm Spirit
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
65% · 181 game43% · 81 game
UndyingVitaly
Undying
Pudge
Pudgemrls
48% · 64 games52% · 106 games
ClockwerkPrada
Clockwerk
49% · 150 games
SnapfireMjz
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct29:17
eSpoiled 67%HunterZ 33%
The model gave 67% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
37% · 104 games50% · 110 games
LeshracLumière
Leshrac
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDifference
48% · 222 games57% · 176 games
Dragon KnightBenjimon
Dragon Knight
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
63% · 168 games48% · 38 games
BrewmasterVitaly
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
48% · 274 games50% · 173 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
48% · 271 game
TuskMjz
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct32:14
eSpoiled 66%HunterZ 34%
The model gave 66% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 27:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Venomancer
Venomancerssnovv1
59% · 46 games50% · 138 games
AbaddonLumière
Abaddon
Puck
PuckDifference
50% · 329 games40% · 160 games
Storm SpiritBenjimon
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
48% · 265 games51% · 187 games
EarthshakerVitaly
Earthshaker
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
62% · 154 games43% · 107 games
SilencerPrada
Silencer
44% · 202 games
ClockwerkMjz
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 79%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3