GRIN esports vs Fart Studios — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

GRIN esportsloss 0:2

series probability

61%39%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Fart Studioswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

No games played over 6 months.

Fart Studios

Dark Willow

Newsham · 3 games

Earth Spiritoften banned

iAnnihilate · 3 games

33%

Zeus

iAnnihilate · 3 games

33%

Grimstrokeoften banned

Jenkins · 2 games

Kunkkaoften banned

iAnnihilate · 2 games

Lone Druidoften banned

Fear · 2 games

Muertaoften banned

Newsham · 2 games

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Jenkins · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

264 picks · 444 bans

50%

Phoenix

241 picks · 384 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

233 picks · 312 bans

54%

Muerta

225 picks · 317 bans

50%

Dark Willow

216 picks · 101 bans

53%

Tusk

212 picks · 202 bans

47%

Treant Protector

193 picks · 365 bans

54%

Kunkka

190 picks · 521 bans

58%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%

Hero pool strength56% GRIN esports

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total61% GRIN esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed18:43

GRIN esports 54%Fart Studios 46%

The model gave 54% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 39:02.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo