European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Pugna
Riddys · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
485 picks · 753 bans
Batrider
465 picks · 918 bans
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 610 bans
Techies
442 picks · 340 bans
Rubick
436 picks · 196 bans
Mars
433 picks · 687 bans
Pangolier
428 picks · 722 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:36
Natus Vincere Junior 54%Rest Farmers 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 55:37.
Game 2prediction correct38:11
Natus Vincere Junior 54%Rest Farmers 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 25:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2