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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 41 game
51%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 26 games
65%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 28 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 25 games
72%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 25 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 315 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 583 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 355 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
396 picks · 299 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 211 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 863 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 850 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total69% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:18
Nigma Galaxy 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidrincyq
70% · 49 games48% · 139 games
KezAme
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
44% · 288 games49% · 273 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Largo
LargoDavai
53% · 121 game39% · 180 games
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
53% · 323 games47% · 205 games
Rubickfy
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
53% · 101 game54% · 85 games
VenomancerxNova
Venomancer
Game 2prediction missed28:14
Nigma Galaxy 39%Xtreme Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
49% · 183 games44% · 200 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
51% · 372 games51% · 76 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Doom
DoomDavai
55% · 124 games53% · 582 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Io
IoGH
51% · 27 games45% · 47 games
Techiesfy
Techies
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
51% · 222 games53% · 23 games
Winter WyvernxNova
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 69%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2