DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionRRiftloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rift
No games played over 6 months.
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 19 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spirit
WoE · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
292 picks · 686 bans
Shadow Shaman
291 picks · 186 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 641 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
Dark Willow
253 picks · 108 bans
Disruptor
251 picks · 213 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 536 bans
Marci
243 picks · 578 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:45
Rift 24%Kalmychata 76%
The model gave 76% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 44:34.
Game 2prediction correct17:37
Rift 24%Kalmychata 76%
The model gave 76% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 32:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 76%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2