PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTFTeam Frostloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Frost
No games played over 6 months.
Spiky Gaming
Muerta
TK · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Dark Willow
TK · 6 games
Dawnbreakersignature
生死 · 6 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Lion
TK · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 536 bans
Muerta
404 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
354 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 584 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 431 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 795 bans
Phoenix
325 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Frost
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Frost 31%Spiky Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Frost 31%Spiky Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 69%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2