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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aim Possiblewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Lorenof · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%

Aim Possible

Warlock
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
25%
Bane
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 667 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
252 picks · 621 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 520 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 532 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
240 picks · 676 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 21%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:26
Virtus.pro 88%Aim Possible 12%
The model gave 88% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 24:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 88%
Series resultAim Possible 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1