Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
Tinysignature
velheor · 15 games
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
393 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
357 picks · 266 bans
Undying
325 picks · 549 bans
Enigma
247 picks · 769 bans
Pangolier
234 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
227 picks · 346 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
204 picks · 725 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% X3
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:14
X3 42%YNT 58%
The model gave 58% on YNT — the game was taken by X3 in 42:50.
Game 2prediction missed23:10
X3 42%YNT 58%
The model gave 58% on YNT — the game was taken by X3 in 25:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 58%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2