Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBebop pick
37%58%
Bebop · 15 mapsedge Noir Verse +21%Noir Verse · 8 maps
Dust2Noir Verse ban
65%46%
Bebop · 13 mapsedge Bebop +19%Noir Verse · 9 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
43%50%
Bebop · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Noir Verse · 10 maps
AnubisNoir Verse pick
29%42%
Bebop · 3 mapsedge Noir Verse +13%Noir Verse · 8 maps
AncientBebop ban
40%46%
Bebop · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +6%Noir Verse · 9 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
Bebop · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 6 maps
DefaultBebop ban
38%50%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge Noir Verse +12%Noir Verse · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Ancient
2. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
3. PickBebop take Mirage
4. PickNoir Verse take Anubis
5. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
6. BanBebop remove Default
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Bebop 38%Noir Verse 62%
The model gave 63% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Bebop.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 50%
Series resultBebop 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1