IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Legacy#7 in the world · win 13:7series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 13:7
FlyQuest#67 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLegacy ban
40%43%
Legacy · 6 mapsnearly even -3%FlyQuest · 3 maps
Dust2FlyQuest ban
67%57%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +10%FlyQuest · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%50%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Legacy +13%FlyQuest · 4 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
80%33%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge Legacy +47%FlyQuest · 2 maps
NukeLegacy ban
50%60%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge FlyQuest +10%FlyQuest · 1 map
AnubisLegacy ban
60%71%
Legacy · 1 mapedge FlyQuest +11%FlyQuest · 3 maps
OverpassFlyQuest ban
60%50%
Legacy · 1 mapedge Legacy +10%FlyQuest · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
3. BanLegacy remove Ancient
4. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
5. BanLegacy remove Nuke
6. BanFlyQuest remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Legacy 60%FlyQuest 40%
The model gave 60% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 90%
Series resultLegacy 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1