RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#28 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOTU#43 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
31%64%
Luminosity · 9 mapsedge HOTU +33%HOTU · 21 map
CacheLuminosity ban
33%63%
Luminosity · 5 mapsedge HOTU +30%HOTU · 20 maps
AncientHOTU ban
64%53%
Luminosity · 7 mapsedge Luminosity +11%HOTU · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
42%56%
Luminosity · 8 mapsedge HOTU +14%HOTU · 12 maps
AnubisLuminosity ban
50%55%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge HOTU +5%HOTU · 16 maps
MirageLuminosity pick
73%69%
Luminosity · 7 mapsnearly even +4%HOTU · 9 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
55%40%
Luminosity · 7 mapsedge Luminosity +15%HOTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. PickLuminosity take Mirage
4. PickHOTU take Dust2
5. BanHOTU remove Ancient
6. BanLuminosity remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (42% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Luminosity 51%HOTU 49%
The model gave 51% on Luminosity — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Luminosity 64%HOTU 36%
The model gave 64% on Luminosity — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 60%
Series resultHOTU 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2