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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-3351u
ROI
-29%
win rate
62%
bets
1259
drawdown
335.2%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-46u
period 24top-up-92u
period 23top-up-145u
period 22top-up-205u
period 21top-up-188u
period 20top-up-24u
period 19top-up-234u
period 18top-up-141u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll125962%-3351-29%335.2%Select
Flat (10 units)125962%-3622-28.8%362.3%Select
Martingale93461%-6045-29.6%604.5%Select
2% of bankroll125962%-6215-29.3%621.6%Select
5% of bankroll125962%-12561-30.1%1256.3%Select
10% of bankroll125962%-18411-31.4%1841.3%Select
Quarter Kelly4898%-18852-87.5%1885.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0210won+0-2351
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0110won+0-2351
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-2351
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0010lost-10-2352
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0110won+0-2342
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1510won+1-2342
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-2343
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-2344
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0210won+0-2344
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0610won+1-2344
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0010lost-10-2344
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0010lost-10-2335
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxPower Rangers1.0110won+0-2325
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0210won+0-2325
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6010lost-10-2325
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2210won+2-2315
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0310won+0-2318
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0310won+0-2318
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6010lost-10-2318
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3010lost-10-2308
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0110won+0-2298
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5010won+15-2298
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1510won+11-2313
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-2324
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-2314
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0110won+0-2304
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0310won+0-2305
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.009lost-9-2305
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.019won+0-2296
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.509lost-9-2296
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.009won+9-2286
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.019won+0-2296
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.359won+3-2296
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.019won+0-2299
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.009lost-9-2299
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.009lost-9-2290
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.009lost-9-2280
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.029won+0-2271
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0010lost-10-2271
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-2262
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6010lost-10-2252
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5010lost-10-2242
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9210won+9-2233
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Lynx1.5210lost-10-2242
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0010lost-10-2232
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2510won+2-2222
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0010lost-10-2224
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-2214
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.1210won+1-2214
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingBETBOOM Team1.0310won+0-2216
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0410won+0-2216
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingTeam Liquid1.0110won+0-2216
12.07.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0810won+1-2216
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9010lost-10-2217
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0210won+0-2207
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-2207
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0210won+0-2207
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-2208
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.0110won+0-2208
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-2208
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.