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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-10726u
ROI
-29.2%
win rate
62%
bets
4992
drawdown
1060.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-318u
period 24top-up-246u
period 23top-up-401u
period 22top-up-544u
period 21top-up-502u
period 20top-up-388u
period 19top-up-511u
period 18top-up-512u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale26758%-1655-29.1%164.7%Select
1% of bankroll499262%-10726-29.2%1060.5%Select
Flat (10 units)499262%-14348-28.7%1418.2%Select
2% of bankroll499262%-16606-29.5%1622.3%Select
5% of bankroll499262%-22896-29.9%2159.9%Select
10% of bankroll499262%-24556-29.5%2191.8%Select
Quarter Kelly19358%-24607-81.8%2389.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4992, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.027won+0-9726
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.017won+0-9726
20.08.261w Team – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.017won+0-9726
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.017won+0-9726
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.017won+0-9726
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Spirit1.017won+0-9726
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.007lost-7-9726
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.017won+0-9719
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.807lost-7-9719
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.857lost-7-9712
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.007lost-7-9705
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.457won+3-9698
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.007lost-7-9702
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingLGD Gaming1.017won+0-9694
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.007lost-7-9694
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.017won+0-9687
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.017won+0-9687
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.157won+1-9687
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.017won+0-9688
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.027won+0-9689
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.017won+0-9689
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamOG1.017won+0-9689
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.017won+0-9689
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.307lost-7-9689
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamXtreme Gaming1.017won+0-9682
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.007lost-7-9682
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.047won+0-9674
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.407lost-7-9675
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.607lost-7-9667
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.057won+0-9660
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.017won+0-9660
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.208lost-8-9660
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.228won+2-9653
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.808lost-8-9654
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.008lost-8-9647
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.988won+7-9639
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.128won+1-9646
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.068won+0-9647
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w TeamBETBOOM Team1.208won+2-9648
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamTeam Yandex1.018won+0-9649
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingTeam Spirit1.018won+0-9649
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.028won+0-9650
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.018won+0-9650
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.008lost-8-9650
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGBETBOOM Team1.358won+3-9642
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.208won+2-9645
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.068won+0-9646
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.008lost-8-9647
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.008lost-8-9639
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.008lost-8-9631
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.308lost-8-9623
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.008lost-8-9616
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.008lost-8-9608
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.038won+0-9599
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.018won+0-9600
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.008lost-8-9600
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.008lost-8-9592
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseRune Eaters Arise1.018won+0-9583
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.018won+0-9583
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.008lost-8-9583
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.