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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+2356u
ROI
+21.8%
win rate
72%
bets
68
drawdown
26.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+74u
period 2profit withdrawn+1269u
period 1profit withdrawn+1014u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll6872%+2356+21.8%26.1%Select
5% of bankroll6872%+1045+24.4%16.8%Select
2% of bankroll6872%+387+26%8.6%Select
Martingale6872%+286+26.5%5.8%Select
1% of bankroll6872%+188+26.4%4.8%Selected
Flat (10 units)6872%+183+26.9%4.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.35119lost-1193356
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82110won+913476
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54105won+573385
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8297won+803328
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7090won+643249
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7084won+593185
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8794lost-943126
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6888won+603220
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6982won+573160
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7277won+553103
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7585lost-853047
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6694lost-943133
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8687won+753227
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8597lost-973152
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.76107lost-1073249
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.74100won+743357
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.74252lost-2523282
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.88280lost-2803534
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.43311lost-3113815
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.82288won+2374126
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.53273won+1453889
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.86252won+2153744
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.54279lost-2793529
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.82258won+2123808
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.64243won+1563596
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.88223won+1963439
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.82206won+1693244
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.81191won+1543075
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.79177won+1402920
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.50168won+842780
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.72157won+1122696
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.58174lost-1742584
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.66164won+1082758
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w TeamNatus Vincere1.57155won+882650
22.09.26Team Nemesis – GamerLegionTeam Nemesis1.74172lost-1722562
21.09.26YBN Team – NS TeamYBN Team1.83191lost-1912734
21.09.26Two Move – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.87212lost-2122926
21.09.26Team Nemesis – MOUZTeam Nemesis1.64200won+1283138
21.09.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.55189won+1043010
21.09.26Aurora Gaming – Team CobraAurora Gaming1.87174won+1522906
20.09.26Inner Circle – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.65163won+1062754
20.09.26PlayTime – Team CobraTeam Cobra1.89150won+1332648
20.09.26Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme GamingConventus Stellarum1.89167lost-1672515
19.09.26LGD Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.82185lost-1852682
18.09.26uralan – Two MoveTwo Move1.89170won+1512868
18.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.79158won+1252717
17.09.26Kalmychata – uralanuralan1.82175lost-1752592
17.09.26Nemiga Gaming – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.62165won+1032767
16.09.26Inner Circle – uralanuralan1.87152won+1332664
13.09.26Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog ClubStariy_Bog Club1.77141won+1082531
12.09.26Team Nemesis – InterActive PhilippinesTeam Nemesis1.82130won+1072423
10.09.26GamerLegion – Klim Sani4Klim Sani41.63123won+772316
09.09.26Klim Sani4 – Inner CircleKlim Sani41.74114won+842239
09.09.26Natus Vincere – GamerLegionNatus Vincere1.82105won+872155
08.09.26MOUZ – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.8297won+802068
07.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.81108lost-1081988
01.09.26Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit AcademyZero Tenacity1.83100won+832096
30.08.26Natus Vincere – MOUZMOUZ1.88224lost-2242014
29.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit AcademyKlim Sani41.77208won+1602237
29.08.26summer bear – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.76193won+1472078
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.