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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+3810u
ROI
+14.3%
win rate
62%
bets
261
drawdown
27.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+266u
period 2top-up-234u
period 1profit withdrawn+3778u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll26162%+3810+14.3%27.1%Select
5% of bankroll26162%+1477+11.1%20.7%Select
2% of bankroll26162%+531+10.1%13.2%Select
1% of bankroll26162%+258+9.8%7.9%Select
Flat (10 units)26162%+251+9.6%8.1%Select
Martingale5366%-777-46.2%82.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 261, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26CyberHero – KalmychataKalmychata1.84117won+984810
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.61110won+674712
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.88122lost-1224645
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx1.40118won+474768
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.83109won+904720
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.53103won+554630
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.5198won+504575
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88109lost-1094525
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.54103won+564634
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.35115lost-1154578
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88128lost-1284693
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.88142lost-1424821
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82131won+1084963
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54124won+674855
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.76138lost-1384788
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingCloud Rising1.83154lost-1544926
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamALOHADANCE Team1.82171lost-1715079
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingHULIGANI1.77158won+1225250
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.82146won+1215128
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityTeam Lynx1.65137won+895008
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.70128won+904919
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamBy_Owl Team1.82143lost-1434829
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamALOHADANCE Team1.89131won+1164971
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.78122won+944855
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 1111111.50135lost-1354761
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampCyberHero1.64127won+814896
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.70119won+834815
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthNew Growth1.77132lost-1324731
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.83147lost-1474863
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Yandex1.83135won+1125010
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.87150lost-1504898
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w TeamPARIVISION1.85139won+1185049
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.68130won+894930
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.59123won+724842
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.88136lost-1364770
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.86125won+1084906
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.85116won+984797
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.69108won+754699
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8999won+884625
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.85110lost-1104537
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.66103won+684647
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIYellow Submarine1.64115lost-1154579
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZLEGION1.66108won+714694
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.65120lost-1204623
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingBlasterbI1.57113won+654743
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.72106won+774678
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7798won+754602
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8990won+804526
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6385won+544446
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANITeam Synapse1.7179won+564392
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7588lost-884336
03.10.261w Team – OGOG1.8898lost-984424
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.66109lost-1094522
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.86100won+864631
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.76111lost-1114545
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.81103won+834656
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.87114lost-1144573
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidGamerLegion1.76106won+814687
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.76118lost-1184606
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85131lost-1314724
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.