Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+392u
ROI
+26%
win rate
72%
bets
69
drawdown
8.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+36u
period 2profit withdrawn+205u
period 1profit withdrawn+151u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 69 | 72% | +2366 | +21.7% | 26.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 69 | 72% | +1057 | +24.4% | 17% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 69 | 72% | +392 | +26% | 8.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 69 | 72% | +295 | +26.8% | 5.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 69 | 72% | +191 | +26.5% | 4.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 69 | 72% | +186 | +27% | 4.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 69, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Team Resilience – Yakult Brothers | Team Resilience | 1.61 | 20 | won | +12 | 1392 |
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.35 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1380 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 21 | won | +17 | 1401 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 20 | won | +11 | 1384 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1373 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.70 | 20 | won | +14 | 1356 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 19 | won | +14 | 1342 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1329 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Team Spirit | 1.68 | 20 | won | +13 | 1348 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 19 | won | +13 | 1335 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 19 | won | +14 | 1322 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 19 | lost | -19 | 1308 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1327 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 1.86 | 19 | won | +17 | 1347 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1330 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1350 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Aurora Gaming | 1.74 | 20 | won | +15 | 1371 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 25 | lost | -25 | 1356 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.88 | 25 | lost | -25 | 1380 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 26 | lost | -26 | 1405 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 25 | won | +21 | 1431 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 25 | won | +13 | 1410 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 25 | won | +21 | 1397 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.54 | 25 | lost | -25 | 1376 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.82 | 25 | won | +20 | 1401 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 24 | won | +16 | 1381 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.88 | 24 | won | +21 | 1365 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 23 | won | +19 | 1344 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 23 | won | +19 | 1325 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.79 | 23 | won | +18 | 1306 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 23 | won | +11 | 1288 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 1.72 | 22 | won | +16 | 1277 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 23 | lost | -23 | 1261 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 22 | won | +15 | 1284 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | Natus Vincere | 1.57 | 22 | won | +13 | 1269 |
| 22.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.83 | 23 | lost | -23 | 1256 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 23 | lost | -23 | 1279 |
| 21.09.26 | Two Move – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.87 | 24 | lost | -24 | 1302 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | Team Nemesis | 1.64 | 23 | won | +15 | 1326 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Kalmychata | 1.55 | 23 | won | +13 | 1311 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 23 | won | +20 | 1298 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 22 | won | +14 | 1278 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 22 | won | +19 | 1264 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 22 | lost | -22 | 1245 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 23 | lost | -23 | 1267 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | Two Move | 1.89 | 22 | won | +20 | 1290 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.79 | 22 | won | +17 | 1270 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | uralan | 1.82 | 22 | lost | -22 | 1252 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.62 | 22 | won | +14 | 1275 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 22 | won | +19 | 1261 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Stariy_Bog Club | 1.77 | 21 | won | +16 | 1242 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 21 | won | +17 | 1225 |
| 10.09.26 | GamerLegion – Klim Sani4 | Klim Sani4 | 1.63 | 21 | won | +13 | 1208 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Klim Sani4 | 1.74 | 21 | won | +15 | 1195 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | Natus Vincere | 1.82 | 20 | won | +17 | 1180 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1163 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1147 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Zero Tenacity | 1.83 | 20 | won | +17 | 1167 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 23 | lost | -23 | 1151 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 23 | won | +18 | 1174 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.