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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+501u
ROI
+9.6%
win rate
62%
bets
259
drawdown
13.7%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+57u
period 2profit withdrawn+45u
period 1profit withdrawn+399u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll25962%+3645+13.8%27.1%Select
5% of bankroll25962%+1395+10.6%21.5%Select
2% of bankroll25962%+501+9.6%13.7%Select
1% of bankroll25962%+243+9.3%8.4%Select
Flat (10 units)25962%+237+9.1%8.6%Select
Martingale5366%-777-46.2%82.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.8822lost-221501
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx1.4021won+91522
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.5321won+111514
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8321won+171502
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.5121won+101485
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8821lost-211475
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5421won+111496
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.3521lost-211484
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8822lost-221506
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8822lost-221527
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.5422won+121549
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.8222won+181537
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.7622lost-221520
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingCloud Rising1.8322lost-221542
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8223lost-231564
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingHULIGANI1.7723won+171587
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8222won+181570
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityTeam Lynx1.6522won+141551
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7022won+151537
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamBy_Owl Team1.8222lost-221522
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8922won+191544
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7821won+171525
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 1111111.5022lost-221508
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampCyberHero1.6421won+141530
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7021won+151516
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthNew Growth1.7722lost-221502
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8322lost-221523
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Yandex1.8322won+181545
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8722lost-221527
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w TeamPARIVISION1.8522won+191550
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6821won+151531
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.5921won+121516
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8822lost-221504
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.8621won+181525
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8521won+181507
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6921won+141489
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8920won+181475
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8521lost-211457
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6620won+131478
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIYellow Submarine1.6421lost-211464
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZLEGION1.6621won+131485
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6521lost-211472
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingBlasterbI1.5721won+121493
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7220won+151481
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7720won+151466
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8920won+181451
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6320won+121433
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANITeam Synapse1.7119won+141421
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7520lost-201407
03.10.261w Team – OGOG1.8820lost-201427
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6620lost-201447
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8620won+171467
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.7621lost-211450
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8120won+161470
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8721lost-211454
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidGamerLegion1.7620won+151475
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7621lost-211459
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8521lost-211480
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersGamerLegion1.7521won+161501
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.7421won+151486
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.