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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+1311u
ROI
+11.1%
win rate
63%
bets
129
drawdown
32.4%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+176u
period 2top-up-127u
period 1profit withdrawn+1263u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll12963%+1311+11.1%32.4%Selected
5% of bankroll12963%+655+10.5%23.8%Select
2% of bankroll12963%+264+10.4%12.2%Select
Martingale12963%+144+4.5%55.1%Select
Flat (10 units)12963%+132+10.3%6.6%Select
1% of bankroll12963%+132+10.3%6.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 129, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.61111won+672311
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.88123lost-1232244
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.53117won+622367
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88130lost-1302305
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82120won+992435
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54114won+622336
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.82105won+872274
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7098won+692188
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7092won+642118
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.87102lost-1022054
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6895won+652156
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.88106lost-1062091
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.8698won+842197
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6991won+632112
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8984won+742049
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8593lost-931975
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6687won+582068
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6597lost-972010
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7291won+662108
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7784won+642042
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8977won+691977
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6373won+461909
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7581lost-811863
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6690lost-901944
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8683won+712033
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8792lost-921962
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.76102lost-1022054
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85113lost-1132156
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.74106won+782270
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMTeam Yandex1.56100won+562191
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.7497lost-972136
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.4693won+422233
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.88103lost-1032190
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.8795won+832293
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.43105lost-1052211
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.7598won+732316
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.6992won+632243
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.6386won+552179
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.7496lost-962125
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8288won+732221
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.5384won+452148
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8677won+662103
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.7886lost-862037
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5496lost-962123
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.8288won+732218
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8381won+682146
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6477won+492078
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8870won+622029
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8265won+531967
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8160won+491914
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7956won+441865
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5053won+271821
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5359lost-591794
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7255won+391853
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7851won+401814
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7448won+351774
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8744won+381739
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5849lost-491701
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.6646won+301749
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriHokori1.7851lost-511719
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.