?

Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-22964u
ROI
-30.7%
win rate
62%
bets
2542
drawdown
2296.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

10% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-809u
period 24top-up-685u
period 23top-up-927u
period 22top-up-995u
period 21top-up-985u
period 20top-up-824u
period 19top-up-982u
period 18top-up-989u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale25160%-2198-37.4%219.8%Select
1% of bankroll254262%-6321-29.3%632.1%Select
Flat (10 units)254262%-7383-29%738.3%Select
2% of bankroll254262%-10928-29.6%1092.9%Select
5% of bankroll254262%-18643-30.2%1864.4%Select
10% of bankroll254262%-22964-30.7%2296.5%Select
Quarter Kelly9878%-23194-85.5%2319.4%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0219won+0-21964
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0119won+0-21965
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0119won+0-21965
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.0021lost-21-21965
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0023lost-23-21944
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0123won+0-21921
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.0123won+0-21921
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1523won+3-21921
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0123won+0-21924
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.0223won+0-21925
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0123won+0-21925
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0123won+0-21925
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.8026lost-26-21926
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.9823won+23-21900
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.1223won+3-21923
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0223won+0-21926
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0623won+1-21926
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0025lost-25-21927
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0028lost-28-21902
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0031lost-31-21874
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0035lost-35-21843
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0135won+0-21808
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0039lost-39-21808
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0043lost-43-21770
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.0048lost-48-21727
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0247won+1-21680
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0847won+4-21681
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6052lost-52-21684
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2251won+11-21632
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersPlayTime1.0151won+1-21643
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0057lost-57-21644
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.0157won+1-21587
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0357won+2-21588
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResiliencePlayTime1.0656won+3-21589
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0356won+2-21593
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6062lost-62-21594
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG1.0162won+1-21532
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3069lost-69-21533
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0077lost-77-21463
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0177won+1-21387
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5067won+100-21387
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1560won+69-21487
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0067lost-67-21556
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w TeamTeam Falcons1.0866won+5-21490
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0073lost-73-21495
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0081lost-81-21422
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0091lost-91-21340
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.20101lost-101-21250
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionBETBOOM Team1.01101won+1-21149
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.01100won+1-21150
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.01100won+1-21151
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.03100won+3-21152
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.9235lost-35-21155
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0039lost-39-21120
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0139won+0-21081
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHGLYPH1.0139won+0-21082
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5043lost-43-21082
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0039won+39-21039
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0139won+0-21078
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3538won+13-21079
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.