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Dota 2 betting strategies

Backtested on 265 matches, odds modelled from ratings
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
Your strategy: Value: edge ≥ 5% · Martingaleits recommendations show up on match pages
All results are computed on historical matches: probability is built walk-forward with Elo, and stake size scales off a 1000-unit bankroll. "Bankroll reset" sets how often the bankroll returns to its starting sum — profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up.
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+26u
profit
+0.7%
ROI
58%
win rate
31.8%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+26u
profit
+0.7%
ROI
58%
win rate
31.8%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+23u
profit
+1.3%
ROI
58%
win rate
19.4%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+23u
profit
+1.3%
ROI
58%
win rate
19.4%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

+17u
profit
+1.9%
ROI
31%
win rate
31%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+16u
profit
+1.5%
ROI
58%
win rate
28.2%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+16u
profit
+1.5%
ROI
58%
win rate
28.2%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+11u
profit
+1.6%
ROI
58%
win rate
9%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+11u
profit
+1.6%
ROI
58%
win rate
9%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+6u
profit
+1.8%
ROI
58%
win rate
4.8%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+6u
profit
+1.8%
ROI
58%
win rate
4.8%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+6u
profit
+1.7%
ROI
58%
win rate
4.7%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+6u
profit
+1.7%
ROI
58%
win rate
4.7%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-53u
profit
-33.2%
ROI
31%
win rate
5.7%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-53u
profit
-33.4%
ROI
31%
win rate
5.6%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-61u
profit
-17%
ROI
42%
win rate
8.9%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-61u
profit
-17.1%
ROI
42%
win rate
9%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-61u
profit
-17.1%
ROI
42%
win rate
9.1%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-61u
profit
-17.1%
ROI
42%
win rate
9.1%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-64u
profit
-3.4%
ROI
42%
win rate
60%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-71u
profit
-4%
ROI
42%
win rate
59.5%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-107u
profit
-33.6%
ROI
31%
win rate
11.2%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-120u
profit
-17%
ROI
42%
win rate
17.4%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-123u
profit
-17.2%
ROI
42%
win rate
17.7%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-272u
profit
-34%
ROI
31%
win rate
27.3%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-288u
profit
-16.8%
ROI
42%
win rate
40.6%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-304u
profit
-17.4%
ROI
42%
win rate
42.5%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-540u
profit
-16.5%
ROI
42%
win rate
72.2%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-552u
profit
-34.7%
ROI
31%
win rate
55.2%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-593u
profit
-17.5%
ROI
42%
win rate
78.5%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
Dota 2 betting strategies on historical matches: favorite, underdog at odds 2+/3+/5+, value bets, 1–10% bankroll stake, quarter Kelly, martingale. Odds modelled from the Elo rating. Starting bankroll 1000 units.