Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.
profit
-921u
ROI
-73.4%
win rate
31%
bets
16
drawdown
93.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-1000u
period 3profit withdrawn+79u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 17 | 29% | -5 | -3.2% | 7.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 17 | 29% | -6 | -3.6% | 7.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 17 | 29% | -6 | -0.3% | 44.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 17 | 29% | -9 | -2.8% | 13.7% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 17 | 29% | -15 | -1.7% | 28% | Select |
| Martingale | 16 | 31% | -921 | -73.4% | 93.3% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 16, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 474 | lost | -474 | 79 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 320 | lost | -320 | 553 |
| 07.08.26 | fnatic – 6666 | 6666 | 3.21 | 160 | lost | -160 | 873 |
| 07.08.26 | GenOne – lafox | lafox | 3.01 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1033 |
| 05.08.26 | Nordic Partners – GenOne | Nordic Partners | 3.02 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1113 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 3.04 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1153 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Lilmix | Lilmix | 3.22 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1173 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | SINNERS | 3.60 | 40 | won | +104 | 1183 |
| 31.07.26 | INOX Division – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 3.05 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1079 |
| 28.07.26 | TDK – BET-M | BET-M | 3.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1099 |
| 28.07.26 | TDK – BAKS | BAKS | 3.08 | 10 | won | +21 | 1109 |
| 26.07.26 | QUAZAR – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 3.58 | 10 | won | +26 | 1088 |
| 25.07.26 | HOTU – Astralis | Astralis | 3.13 | 20 | won | +43 | 1063 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1020 |
| 18.07.26 | PsychoFace – QUAZAR | PsychoFace | 3.00 | 20 | won | +40 | 1030 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.