Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.
profit
+434u
ROI
+32.2%
win rate
38%
bets
13
drawdown
29.2%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-330u
period 3profit withdrawn+764u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 13 | 38% | +434 | +32.2% | 29.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 13 | 38% | +189 | +28.4% | 20.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 13 | 38% | +69 | +26.1% | 10.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 13 | 38% | +33 | +25.4% | 5.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 13 | 38% | +32 | +24.7% | 5.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 13 | 38% | -498 | -69.1% | 55.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 13, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 74 | lost | -74 | 1434 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 83 | lost | -83 | 1509 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 92 | lost | -92 | 1592 |
| 07.08.26 | fnatic – 6666 | 6666 | 3.20 | 102 | lost | -102 | 1683 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 3.01 | 113 | lost | -113 | 1786 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Lilmix | Lilmix | 3.21 | 126 | lost | -126 | 1899 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | SINNERS | 3.61 | 100 | won | +261 | 2025 |
| 28.07.26 | TDK – BAKS | BAKS | 3.01 | 147 | won | +295 | 1764 |
| 26.07.26 | QUAZAR – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 3.57 | 117 | won | +301 | 1469 |
| 25.07.26 | HOTU – Astralis | Astralis | 3.02 | 97 | won | +196 | 1168 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.00 | 108 | lost | -108 | 972 |
| 18.07.26 | PsychoFace – QUAZAR | PsychoFace | 3.00 | 90 | won | +180 | 1080 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.02 | 100 | lost | -100 | 900 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.