Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.
profit
+78u
ROI
+10.1%
win rate
33%
bets
15
drawdown
24%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-211u
period 3profit withdrawn+289u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 15 | 33% | +189 | +11.9% | 35.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 15 | 33% | +78 | +10.1% | 24% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 15 | 33% | +27 | +8.9% | 11.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 15 | 33% | +13 | +8.4% | 6.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 15 | 33% | +12 | +8% | 6.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 15 | 33% | -904 | -77.8% | 91.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 15, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 42 | lost | -42 | 1078 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 44 | lost | -44 | 1120 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 46 | lost | -46 | 1164 |
| 07.08.26 | fnatic – 6666 | 6666 | 3.20 | 48 | lost | -48 | 1210 |
| 05.08.26 | BESTIA – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 3.02 | 51 | lost | -51 | 1258 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 3.02 | 54 | lost | -54 | 1309 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Lilmix | Lilmix | 3.21 | 57 | lost | -57 | 1363 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | SINNERS | 3.61 | 50 | won | +130 | 1419 |
| 31.07.26 | INOX Division – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 3.04 | 68 | lost | -68 | 1289 |
| 28.07.26 | TDK – BAKS | BAKS | 3.01 | 62 | won | +124 | 1357 |
| 26.07.26 | QUAZAR – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 3.57 | 55 | won | +141 | 1233 |
| 25.07.26 | HOTU – Astralis | Astralis | 3.01 | 50 | won | +100 | 1093 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.00 | 52 | lost | -52 | 993 |
| 18.07.26 | PsychoFace – QUAZAR | PsychoFace | 3.00 | 48 | won | +95 | 1045 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.02 | 50 | lost | -50 | 950 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.