CS2 match analytics

Model predictions, probabilities and accuracy on real matches

Prediction accuracy

66%

199 of 303 matches

Calibration (Brier)

0.218

the lower, the more honest the probability

Accuracy on favorites

74%

105 of 142 confident

Average favorite odds

1.60

fair, without margin

How we calculate. For each match the model estimates the win probability from map winrate over 3 months, form, head-to-head and rating — using data before the match starts. From the probability we get the "fair odds" (1 / probability): the break-even threshold for a bet. Accuracy and calibration (Brier) are computed on real finished matches. Matches marked value are those where the market odds are above fair, i.e. the bet has positive expected value (edge = odds × probability − 1).

Betting strategies: historical backtest → arrow_forward

Your strategy: Value: edge ≥ 5% · Martingaleits recommendations show up on match pages

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9

ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3

odds 2.13fair

odds 1.89fair

favorite · Alter Egoconfidence 53% · fair odds 1.89bankroll ~1.9%veto breakdown →

Thunderpick World Championship 2026

odds 1.62fair

odds 2.62fair

favorite · Legacyconfidence 62% · fair odds 1.62bankroll ~2.7%veto breakdown →

CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 Closed Qualifier

odds 1.70fair

odds 2.43fair

favorite · PCIFICconfidence 59% · fair odds 1.70bankroll ~2.4%veto breakdown →

PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 2

Nuclear TigeRES

odds 1.56fair

odds 2.80fair

favorite · Nuclear TigeRESconfidence 64% · fair odds 1.56bankroll ~2.9%veto breakdown →

PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 2

odds 1.91fair

odds 2.10fair

favorite · UPGRADEconfidence 52% · fair odds 1.91bankroll ~1.9%veto breakdown →

PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 2

odds 2.02fair

odds 1.98fair

favorite · FOKUSconfidence 50% · fair odds 1.98bankroll ~1.8%veto breakdown →

PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 2

odds 2.48fair

odds 1.68fair

favorite · NTconfidence 60% · fair odds 1.68bankroll ~2.5%veto breakdown →

CCT 2026 Europe Series 11

odds 1.93fair

The Last Resort

odds 2.07fair

favorite · G2 Aresconfidence 52% · fair odds 1.93bankroll ~1.8%veto breakdown →

NODWIN Clutch Series 13

odds 2.45fair

odds 1.69fair

favorite · FORZE Reloadconfidence 59% · fair odds 1.69bankroll ~2.4%veto breakdown →

CS2 match analytics and predictions

This section gathers our model's predictions for Counter-Strike 2 matches: each team's chance to win the series, the fair odds and a breakdown of the likely map veto. The prediction is built from pre-match statistics — team winrate on maps over three months, current form, head-to-head and world ranking position.

For finished matches we show the original probability and the actual result, and above it — honest quality metrics: prediction accuracy and calibration (Brier). This shows how much the model can be trusted. "Fair odds" equal one divided by the probability and mean the threshold above which a bet has positive expected value.