CS2 match analytics

How we calculate. For each match the model estimates the win probability from map winrate over 3 months, form, head-to-head and rating — using data before the match starts. From the probability we get the "fair odds" (1 / probability): the break-even threshold for a bet. Accuracy and calibration (Brier) are computed on real finished matches. Matches marked value are those where the market odds are above fair, i.e. the bet has positive expected value (edge = odds × probability − 1).