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Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

profit
-24955u
ROI
-96.6%
win rate
1%
bets
4055
drawdown
2495.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-1000u
period 24top-up-999u
period 23top-up-1000u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-1000u
period 20top-up-1000u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
Flat (10 units)1461%-1300-89.3%130%Select
1% of bankroll40611%-19127-96.4%1912.7%Select
2% of bankroll40611%-23191-96.6%2319.1%Select
5% of bankroll40611%-24753-97.2%2475.3%Select
Quarter Kelly40551%-24955-96.6%2495.5%Selected
10% of bankroll40611%-24957-96.7%2495.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4055, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.000lost-0-23955
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.000lost-0-23955
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.000lost-0-23955
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.000lost-0-23955
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23955
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.000lost-0-23955
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.000lost-0-23955
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.000lost-0-23955
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.300lost-0-23955
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.000lost-0-23955
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23955
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.300lost-0-23955
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.000lost-0-23954
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.000lost-0-23954
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23954
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.600lost-0-23954
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.000lost-0-23954
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.000lost-0-23954
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.000lost-0-23953
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.800lost-0-23953
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.500lost-0-23953
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.000lost-0-23953
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.000lost-0-23953
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23952
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23952
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.000lost-0-23952
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.000lost-0-23952
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.000lost-0-23952
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.001lost-1-23951
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.301lost-1-23951
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.001lost-1-23950
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.001lost-1-23949
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.000lost-0-23949
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.000lost-0-23948
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.001lost-1-23948
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.001lost-1-23947
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.001lost-1-23946
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.001lost-1-23945
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.001lost-1-23944
09.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – Ilbirs eSportsRune Eaters Arise6.001won+4-23943
09.08.26Zero Tenacity – Natus VincereZero Tenacity14.000lost-0-23947
09.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Rune EatersIlbirs eSports14.001lost-1-23947
09.08.26Level UP – MOUZMOUZ10.001lost-1-23946
09.08.26Power Rangers – Yellow SubmarinePower Rangers14.001lost-1-23945
08.08.26Team Lynx – Level UPTeam Lynx13.001lost-1-23943
08.08.26Amaru Gaming – Team JenzTeam Jenz14.002lost-2-23942
08.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.002lost-2-23940
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.002lost-2-23939
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxTeam Syntax12.001lost-1-23937
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.002lost-2-23936
07.08.26Power Rangers – Team JenzTeam Jenz10.001lost-1-23934
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.