Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+444u
ROI
+12.1%
win rate
64%
bets
36
drawdown
27.8%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-195u
period 2profit withdrawn+401u
period 1profit withdrawn+237u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +444 | +12.1% | 27.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +230 | +12.6% | 18% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +93 | +12.9% | 8.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 36 | 64% | +64 | +6.2% | 27.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 64% | +47 | +13% | 4.7% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +47 | +13% | 4.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.35 | 89 | lost | -89 | 1444 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 85 | won | +46 | 1533 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 78 | won | +65 | 1487 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 72 | won | +60 | 1423 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 68 | won | +47 | 1363 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 75 | lost | -75 | 1316 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 70 | won | +49 | 1391 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 66 | won | +48 | 1342 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 73 | lost | -73 | 1295 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 81 | lost | -81 | 1368 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 90 | lost | -90 | 1449 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 100 | lost | -100 | 1539 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 156 | lost | -156 | 1639 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 144 | won | +119 | 1794 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 137 | won | +72 | 1676 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 126 | won | +108 | 1603 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 118 | won | +76 | 1496 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 109 | won | +89 | 1419 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 101 | won | +82 | 1330 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 112 | lost | -112 | 1248 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 105 | won | +70 | 1360 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 117 | lost | -117 | 1290 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 108 | won | +94 | 1407 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 101 | won | +66 | 1314 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 93 | won | +82 | 1248 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 103 | lost | -103 | 1166 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 115 | lost | -115 | 1269 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 105 | won | +92 | 1384 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 97 | won | +80 | 1291 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 90 | won | +74 | 1211 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 100 | lost | -100 | 1137 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 137 | lost | -137 | 1237 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 128 | won | +98 | 1375 |
| 29.08.26 | Team Resilience – Animals Incoming | Team Resilience | 1.89 | 117 | won | +104 | 1277 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Klim Sani4 | 1.89 | 108 | won | +96 | 1173 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.77 | 100 | won | +77 | 1077 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.