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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-10526u
ROI
-83.4%
win rate
9%
bets
186
drawdown
991%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-41u
period 24top-up-502u
period 23top-up-564u
period 22top-up-654u
period 21top-up-454u
period 20top-up-271u
period 19top-up-455u
period 18top-up-36u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll49463%-1281-26.8%128.9%Select
Flat (10 units)49463%-1321-26.7%132.9%Select
2% of bankroll49463%-2486-26.9%246.7%Select
Martingale49463%-3265-28.3%335.9%Select
5% of bankroll49463%-5689-27%541.9%Select
10% of bankroll49463%-9910-27.4%884.6%Select
Quarter Kelly1869%-10526-83.4%991%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 186, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1545won+52-9526
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2093lost-93-9578
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0055lost-55-9485
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0062lost-62-9430
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0068lost-68-9368
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0076lost-76-9300
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0084lost-84-9224
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6094lost-94-9140
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9062lost-62-9046
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2543lost-43-8984
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0053lost-53-8941
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2059lost-59-8888
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0066lost-66-8829
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9035won+66-8763
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2566lost-66-8830
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0073lost-73-8764
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0081lost-81-8691
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0090lost-90-8610
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.60100lost-100-8520
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.7038lost-38-8420
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0043lost-43-8382
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0047lost-47-8339
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.3516lost-16-8291
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0055lost-55-8275
16.05.26Aurora Gaming – Vici GamingAurora Gaming2.4048won+67-8221
16.05.26Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0053lost-53-8288
14.05.26Natus Vincere – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team10.0059lost-59-8235
11.05.26Team Lynx – Two MoveTeam Lynx12.0066lost-66-8176
08.05.26Nigma Galaxy – PlayTimeNigma Galaxy15.0073lost-73-8110
04.05.26Zero Tenacity – REKONIXREKONIX12.0081lost-81-8037
03.05.26MOUZ – Yellow SubmarineMOUZ14.0090lost-90-7956
01.05.26Yakult Brothers – Mideng DreamerMideng Dreamer12.00100lost-100-7866
22.04.26Rune Eaters – MODUSMODUS1.851lost-1-7766
21.04.26South America Rejects – L1ga TeamL1ga Team12.0061lost-61-7765
12.04.26Team Liquid – Natus VincereTeam Liquid12.0068lost-68-7704
12.04.26Roar Gaming – Mideng DreamerMideng Dreamer2.8047won+85-7636
10.04.26Nigma Galaxy – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0066lost-66-7721
07.04.26Nigma Galaxy – L1ga TeamL1ga Team13.0073lost-73-7656
04.04.26Virtus.pro – Power RangersPower Rangers13.0081lost-81-7583
04.04.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity13.0090lost-90-7502
02.04.26MOUZ – 1w TeamMOUZ4.80100lost-100-7412
20.03.261w Team – paiN Gaming1w Team12.0081lost-81-7312
10.03.26Vici Gaming – Team FalconsTeam Falcons15.0090lost-90-7231
09.03.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports15.00100lost-100-7141
28.02.26Team Liquid – Tundra EsportsTeam Liquid15.0061lost-61-7041
26.02.26Aurora Gaming – Xtreme GamingAurora Gaming10.0067lost-67-6980
25.02.26BETBOOM Team – Xtreme GamingBETBOOM Team15.0075lost-75-6913
18.02.26MOUZ – ExecrationMOUZ1.5535won+19-6838
15.02.26Winter Bear – L1ga TeamL1ga Team13.0081lost-81-6857
09.02.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team1w Team10.0090lost-90-6776
07.02.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.00100lost-100-6686
30.01.26Power Rangers – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.4234won+14-6586
25.01.26Zero Tenacity – Virtus.proVirtus.pro10.00106lost-106-6601
23.01.26Pipsqueak+4 – L1ga TeamL1ga Team2.0047lost-47-6495
20.01.26NoLogoJustMMR – Team LynxNoLogoJustMMR3.6078won+202-6448
04.01.26REKONIX – KukuysKukuys13.00100lost-100-6650
26.12.25Kalmychata – VP.ProdigyKalmychata10.0048lost-48-6550
26.12.25Most Wanted – KalmychataMost Wanted10.0053lost-53-6502
25.12.25Most Wanted – KalmychataMost Wanted14.0059lost-59-6449
14.12.25Xtreme Gaming – Virtus.proXtreme Gaming10.0066lost-66-6390
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.