Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+0u
ROI
+0%
win rate
0%
bets
0
drawdown
0%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +162 | +4.7% | 31.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +103 | +5.8% | 19.4% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +46 | +6.5% | 9% | Select |
| Martingale | 36 | 61% | +34 | +3% | 28.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 61% | +25 | +6.8% | 4.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +24 | +6.6% | 4.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 0, showing the last 60.
This strategy places no bets in the selected sample.
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.