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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-24608u
ROI
-81.8%
win rate
8%
bets
1936
drawdown
2389.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-990u
period 24top-up-960u
period 23top-up-997u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-999u
period 20top-up-996u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale26758%-1651-28.9%164.3%Select
1% of bankroll499362%-10733-29.2%1061.1%Select
Flat (10 units)499362%-14358-28.8%1419.1%Select
2% of bankroll499362%-16615-29.5%1623.2%Select
5% of bankroll499362%-22903-29.9%2160.5%Select
10% of bankroll499362%-24558-29.5%2191.9%Select
Quarter Kelly19368%-24608-81.8%2389.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1936, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.901lost-1-23608
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.001lost-1-23607
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.801lost-1-23606
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.851lost-1-23605
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.002lost-2-23603
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.002lost-2-23602
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.002lost-2-23600
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.302lost-2-23598
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.003lost-3-23595
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.403lost-3-23593
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.603lost-3-23590
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.204lost-4-23587
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.004lost-4-23583
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.804lost-4-23580
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.983won+3-23575
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.004lost-4-23578
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGBETBOOM Team1.351won+0-23574
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.005lost-5-23574
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.006lost-6-23569
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.006lost-6-23563
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.307lost-7-23557
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.008lost-8-23550
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.008lost-8-23543
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.009lost-9-23535
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.0010lost-10-23525
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.0012lost-12-23515
09.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – Ilbirs eSportsRune Eaters Arise6.008won+38-23503
09.08.26Level UP – MOUZMOUZ10.009lost-9-23542
09.08.26Power Rangers – Yellow SubmarinePower Rangers14.009lost-9-23533
08.08.26Team Lynx – Level UPTeam Lynx13.0011lost-11-23524
08.08.26Amaru Gaming – Team JenzTeam Jenz14.0012lost-12-23513
08.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0013lost-13-23501
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0014lost-14-23488
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.0016lost-16-23474
07.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Team SyntaxTeam Syntax3.2013lost-13-23458
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.607lost-7-23445
05.08.26Team Falcons – Team LiquidTeam Falcons3.5020lost-20-23438
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0022lost-22-23418
04.08.26Vici Gaming – 1w TeamVici Gaming15.0025lost-25-23396
04.08.26Stray Team – Nix TeamStray Team11.0028lost-28-23371
03.08.26Rune Eaters – LGD GamingLGD Gaming10.0031lost-31-23343
03.08.26Team Falcons – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0034lost-34-23313
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6038lost-38-23279
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3042lost-42-23241
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0047lost-47-23199
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5035won+53-23153
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1519won+22-23206
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0043lost-43-23228
02.08.26REKONIX – Yakult BrothersREKONIX12.0048lost-48-23185
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0054lost-54-23136
01.08.26NS Team – Team aviceTeam avice7.5060lost-60-23083
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0066lost-66-23023
01.08.26Team Falcons – OGTeam Falcons2.6073lost-73-22957
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0082lost-82-22884
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2084lost-84-22802
01.08.26Rune Eaters – PlayTimePlayTime6.00100lost-100-22719
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.922lost-2-22619
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.005lost-5-22617
31.07.26TpaBoMaH Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team12.005lost-5-22612
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.506lost-6-22607
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.