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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-2486u
ROI
-26.9%
win rate
63%
bets
494
drawdown
246.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+5u
period 24top-up-96u
period 23top-up-118u
period 22top-up-182u
period 21top-up-98u
period 20top-up-35u
period 19top-up-100u
period 18profit withdrawn+21u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll49463%-1281-26.8%128.9%Select
Flat (10 units)49463%-1321-26.7%132.9%Select
2% of bankroll49463%-2486-26.9%246.7%Selected
Martingale49463%-3265-28.3%335.9%Select
5% of bankroll49463%-5689-27%541.9%Select
10% of bankroll49463%-9910-27.4%884.6%Select
Quarter Kelly1869%-10526-83.4%991%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0120won+0-1486
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0620won+1-1486
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0320won+1-1487
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0120won+0-1488
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1520won+23-1488
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2020lost-20-1510
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0018lost-18-1490
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0118won+0-1472
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0118won+0-1472
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3518won+6-1472
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0019lost-19-1479
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0019lost-19-1460
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0019lost-19-1441
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0020lost-20-1422
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6020lost-20-1402
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9220won+18-1382
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2520won+5-1400
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0420won+1-1405
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9020lost-20-1406
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0220won+0-1385
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0120won+0-1386
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0120won+0-1386
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.2020won+4-1386
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0120won+0-1390
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w Team1w Team1.2020won+4-1390
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineNigma Galaxy1.1218won+2-1394
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamBy_Owl Team1.0418won+1-1397
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2518lost-18-1397
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit1.0118won+0-1379
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0018lost-18-1379
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDread Team1.3018won+5-1361
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterMentality Monster1.0218won+0-1367
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsGrind Back1.0118won+0-1367
19.06.26summer bear – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0118won+0-1367
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsPower Rangers1.0118won+0-1367
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2019lost-19-1368
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0019lost-19-1349
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9018won+35-1330
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamTeam Nemesis1.0118won+0-1365
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityL1ga Team1.0118won+0-1365
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2519lost-19-1365
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubRamzes Club1.3218won+6-1346
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0019lost-19-1352
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXREKONIX1.0819won+2-1333
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXREKONIX1.0219won+0-1335
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0019lost-19-1335
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0020lost-20-1316
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6020lost-20-1297
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGTeam Spirit1.0116won+0-1277
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.7017lost-17-1277
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubRamzes Club1.1217won+2-1260
27.05.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.2017won+3-1262
27.05.26OG – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0117won+0-1265
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0017lost-17-1266
26.05.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.1717won+3-1249
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0017lost-17-1251
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.3518lost-18-1234
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamSolo Team1.0118won+0-1217
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0018lost-18-1217
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsAurora Gaming1.0318won+1-1199
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.