Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+46u
ROI
+6.5%
win rate
61%
bets
36
drawdown
9%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-35u
period 2profit withdrawn+42u
period 1profit withdrawn+39u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +162 | +4.7% | 31.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +103 | +5.8% | 19.4% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +46 | +6.5% | 9% | Select |
| Martingale | 36 | 61% | +34 | +3% | 28.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 61% | +25 | +6.8% | 4.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 61% | +24 | +6.6% | 4.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stariy_bog Team | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1046 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 19 | won | +11 | 1066 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 19 | won | +16 | 1055 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 19 | won | +16 | 1039 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 19 | won | +13 | 1024 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 19 | lost | -19 | 1011 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 19 | won | +13 | 1030 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 18 | won | +13 | 1017 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 19 | lost | -19 | 1004 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 19 | lost | -19 | 1022 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1042 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1061 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1081 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 21 | won | +17 | 1102 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 21 | won | +11 | 1085 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 20 | won | +17 | 1074 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 20 | won | +13 | 1057 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1044 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 19 | won | +16 | 1028 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 19 | won | +13 | 1012 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 20 | lost | -20 | 999 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1019 |
| 21.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.87 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1039 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 20 | won | +13 | 1059 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1046 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1029 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1049 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 20 | won | +18 | 1069 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1052 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1035 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1019 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1039 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 21 | won | +16 | 1060 |
| 29.08.26 | DYNASTY – Nemiga Gaming | DYNASTY | 1.53 | 21 | won | +11 | 1044 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Klim Sani4 | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1033 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.77 | 20 | won | +15 | 1015 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.