Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+2356u
ROI
+21.8%
win rate
72%
bets
68
drawdown
26.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+74u
period 2profit withdrawn+1269u
period 1profit withdrawn+1014u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 68 | 72% | +2356 | +21.8% | 26.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 68 | 72% | +1045 | +24.4% | 16.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 68 | 72% | +387 | +26% | 8.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 68 | 72% | +286 | +26.5% | 5.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 68 | 72% | +188 | +26.4% | 4.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 68 | 72% | +183 | +26.9% | 4.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.35 | 119 | lost | -119 | 3356 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 110 | won | +91 | 3476 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 105 | won | +57 | 3385 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 97 | won | +80 | 3328 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.70 | 90 | won | +64 | 3249 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 84 | won | +59 | 3185 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 94 | lost | -94 | 3126 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Team Spirit | 1.68 | 88 | won | +60 | 3220 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 82 | won | +57 | 3160 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 77 | won | +55 | 3103 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 85 | lost | -85 | 3047 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 94 | lost | -94 | 3133 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 1.86 | 87 | won | +75 | 3227 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 97 | lost | -97 | 3152 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 107 | lost | -107 | 3249 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Aurora Gaming | 1.74 | 100 | won | +74 | 3357 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 252 | lost | -252 | 3282 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.88 | 280 | lost | -280 | 3534 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 311 | lost | -311 | 3815 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 288 | won | +237 | 4126 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 273 | won | +145 | 3889 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 252 | won | +215 | 3744 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.54 | 279 | lost | -279 | 3529 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.82 | 258 | won | +212 | 3808 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 243 | won | +156 | 3596 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.88 | 223 | won | +196 | 3439 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 206 | won | +169 | 3244 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 191 | won | +154 | 3075 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.79 | 177 | won | +140 | 2920 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 168 | won | +84 | 2780 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 1.72 | 157 | won | +112 | 2696 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 174 | lost | -174 | 2584 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 164 | won | +108 | 2758 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | Natus Vincere | 1.57 | 155 | won | +88 | 2650 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Nemesis – GamerLegion | Team Nemesis | 1.74 | 172 | lost | -172 | 2562 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 191 | lost | -191 | 2734 |
| 21.09.26 | Two Move – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.87 | 212 | lost | -212 | 2926 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | Team Nemesis | 1.64 | 200 | won | +128 | 3138 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Kalmychata | 1.55 | 189 | won | +104 | 3010 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 174 | won | +152 | 2906 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 163 | won | +106 | 2754 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 150 | won | +133 | 2648 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 167 | lost | -167 | 2515 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 185 | lost | -185 | 2682 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | Two Move | 1.89 | 170 | won | +151 | 2868 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.79 | 158 | won | +125 | 2717 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | uralan | 1.82 | 175 | lost | -175 | 2592 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.62 | 165 | won | +103 | 2767 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 152 | won | +133 | 2664 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Stariy_Bog Club | 1.77 | 141 | won | +108 | 2531 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 130 | won | +107 | 2423 |
| 10.09.26 | GamerLegion – Klim Sani4 | Klim Sani4 | 1.63 | 123 | won | +77 | 2316 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Klim Sani4 | 1.74 | 114 | won | +84 | 2239 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | Natus Vincere | 1.82 | 105 | won | +87 | 2155 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 97 | won | +80 | 2068 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 108 | lost | -108 | 1988 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Zero Tenacity | 1.83 | 100 | won | +83 | 2096 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 224 | lost | -224 | 2014 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 208 | won | +160 | 2237 |
| 29.08.26 | summer bear – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.76 | 193 | won | +147 | 2078 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.