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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+1936u
ROI
+20.2%
win rate
71%
bets
68
drawdown
26.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+74u
period 2profit withdrawn+892u
period 1profit withdrawn+970u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll6871%+1936+20.2%26.3%Select
5% of bankroll6871%+895+22.1%17.1%Select
2% of bankroll6871%+339+23.2%8.7%Select
Martingale6871%+286+27.8%5.6%Select
1% of bankroll6871%+166+23.6%4.8%Select
Flat (10 units)6871%+163+23.9%4.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88119lost-1192936
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54113won+613055
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82105won+862994
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8297won+802908
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7090won+642828
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7084won+592765
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8794lost-942705
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6888won+602799
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6982won+572739
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7277won+552682
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7585lost-852627
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6694lost-942712
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8687won+752806
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7697lost-972732
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85107lost-1072829
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.74100won+742936
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.74210lost-2102862
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.88234lost-2343072
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.43260lost-2603306
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.82240won+1983565
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.53228won+1213367
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.86210won+1803247
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.54233lost-2333067
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.82215won+1773300
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.64202won+1303123
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.88186won+1632993
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.82172won+1412829
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.81159won+1292689
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.79147won+1172560
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.50140won+702443
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.72131won+942373
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.66123won+812279
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.58136lost-1362198
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w TeamNatus Vincere1.57129won+732334
22.09.26Team Nemesis – GamerLegionTeam Nemesis1.74144lost-1442261
21.09.26YBN Team – NS TeamYBN Team1.83159lost-1592405
21.09.26Solo Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.71149won+1062564
21.09.26Team Nemesis – MOUZTeam Nemesis1.64140won+902459
21.09.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.55133won+732369
21.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.87147lost-1472296
20.09.26Inner Circle – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.65138won+902444
20.09.26PlayTime – Team CobraTeam Cobra1.89127won+1132354
20.09.26Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme GamingConventus Stellarum1.89141lost-1412241
19.09.26LGD Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.82157lost-1572382
18.09.26uralan – Two MoveTwo Move1.89144won+1282539
18.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.79134won+1062412
17.09.26Kalmychata – uralanuralan1.82148lost-1482306
17.09.26Nemiga Gaming – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.62140won+872455
16.09.26Inner Circle – uralanuralan1.87129won+1122367
13.09.26Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog ClubStariy_Bog Club1.77119won+922255
12.09.26Team Nemesis – InterActive PhilippinesTeam Nemesis1.82110won+912163
10.09.26Recrent Team – Daxak TeamRecrent Team1.89123lost-1232072
09.09.26Klim Sani4 – Inner CircleKlim Sani41.74114won+842195
09.09.26Natus Vincere – GamerLegionNatus Vincere1.82105won+872111
08.09.26MOUZ – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.8297won+802024
07.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.81108lost-1081944
01.09.26Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit AcademyZero Tenacity1.83100won+832052
30.08.26Natus Vincere – MOUZMOUZ1.88219lost-2191970
29.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit AcademyKlim Sani41.77203won+1562189
29.08.26MOUZ – Yellow SubmarineMOUZ1.89187won+1662032
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.