Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-3333u
ROI
-28.8%
win rate
62%
bets
1259
drawdown
333.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-56u
period 24top-up-92u
period 23top-up-145u
period 22top-up-205u
period 21top-up-188u
period 20top-up-24u
period 19top-up-234u
period 18top-up-141u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -3333 | -28.8% | 333.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1259 | 62% | -3598 | -28.6% | 359.9% | Select |
| Martingale | 934 | 61% | -5999 | -29.4% | 599.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -6187 | -29.1% | 618.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -12537 | -29.8% | 1253.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -18427 | -31.1% | 1842.9% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 491 | 8% | -18886 | -86.5% | 1888.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.02 | 9 | won | +0 | -2333 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 9 | won | +0 | -2333 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 9 | won | +0 | -2333 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2333 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2324 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.15 | 10 | won | +1 | -2324 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2325 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2325 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | Aurora Gaming | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | -2325 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 10 | won | +1 | -2325 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2326 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2316 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2307 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | Zero Tenacity | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | -2297 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2297 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | Team Liquid | 1.22 | 10 | won | +2 | -2287 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Yakult Brothers | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | -2289 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | -2290 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2290 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2280 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2270 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | Team Liquid | 2.50 | 10 | won | +15 | -2270 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | -2285 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2296 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2286 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Team avice | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2276 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | -2276 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2277 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 9 | won | +0 | -2268 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2268 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 2.00 | 9 | won | +9 | -2258 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 9 | won | +0 | -2268 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 9 | won | +3 | -2268 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 9 | won | +0 | -2271 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2271 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2262 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2252 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 9 | won | +0 | -2243 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | YBN Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2243 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2234 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2224 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Nemiga Gaming | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2214 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | -2205 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Lynx | 1.52 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2213 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2204 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Zero Tenacity | 1.25 | 10 | won | +2 | -2194 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2196 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2186 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.12 | 10 | won | +1 | -2186 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | -2188 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.04 | 10 | won | +0 | -2188 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2188 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.08 | 10 | won | +1 | -2188 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2189 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | -2179 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2179 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | -2179 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2180 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2180 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2180 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.