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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-18886u
ROI
-86.5%
win rate
8%
bets
491
drawdown
1888.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-503u
period 24top-up-703u
period 23top-up-807u
period 22top-up-920u
period 21top-up-885u
period 20top-up-449u
period 19top-up-930u
period 18top-up-832u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll125962%-3333-28.8%333.3%Select
Flat (10 units)125962%-3598-28.6%359.9%Select
Martingale93461%-5999-29.4%599.9%Select
2% of bankroll125962%-6187-29.1%618.8%Select
5% of bankroll125962%-12537-29.8%1253.9%Select
10% of bankroll125962%-18427-31.1%1842.9%Select
Quarter Kelly4918%-18886-86.5%1888.6%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 491, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0055lost-55-17886
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0061lost-61-17831
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0068lost-68-17769
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0076lost-76-17701
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6031lost-31-17625
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6088lost-88-17595
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3097lost-97-17507
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5074won+111-17410
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1541won+47-17520
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0091lost-91-17567
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2093lost-93-17476
31.07.26BETBOOM TEAM – Team LiquidBETBOOM TEAM11.0033lost-33-17383
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5037lost-37-17350
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0024won+24-17314
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0038lost-38-17338
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0042lost-42-17300
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0047lost-47-17257
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0052lost-52-17210
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0058lost-58-17158
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6064lost-64-17100
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5072lost-72-17035
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Lynx1.5243lost-43-16964
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0084lost-84-16921
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0094lost-94-16836
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9062lost-62-16743
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2519lost-19-16680
25.06.26VooDooSh Team – Recrent TeamRecrent Team8.5024lost-24-16662
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0026lost-26-16638
24.06.26Yellow Submarine – Virtus.proYellow Submarine1.922lost-2-16612
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2029lost-29-16610
16.06.26Game Master – Grey TracGrey Trac13.0033lost-33-16580
15.06.26Red Hot Chili Pibble – Amaru GamingRed Hot Chili Pibble13.0036lost-36-16548
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0040lost-40-16512
12.06.26MODUS – 1p2m1p2m6.3045lost-45-16472
12.06.26Inner Circle – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming12.0050lost-50-16427
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9026won+50-16377
10.06.26Mentality Monster – Yangon GalacticosMentality Monster7.0050lost-50-16428
10.06.26Yangon Galacticos – InterActive PhilippinesInterActive Philippines12.0055lost-55-16378
07.06.26BETBOOM TEAM – LGD GamingBETBOOM TEAM2.2561lost-61-16323
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0068lost-68-16262
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0075lost-75-16194
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0084lost-84-16119
01.06.26chandogs – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming2.1018lost-18-16035
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6095lost-95-16017
01.06.26Rostik999 Club – VooDooSh ClubVooDooSh Club2.1548lost-48-15922
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.709lost-9-15873
29.05.26Tundra Esports – GLYPHTundra Esports1.456won+3-15864
28.05.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-15867
27.05.26GLYPH – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.559won+5-15858
27.05.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TEAMPARIVISION1.550won+0-15863
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0010lost-10-15863
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0011lost-11-15853
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.354lost-4-15842
26.05.26Ramzes Club – Stariy_Bog ClubRamzes Club6.0013lost-13-15838
26.05.26PARIVISION – OGPARIVISION1.223won+1-15825
23.05.26Recrent Team – By_Owl TeamBy_Owl Team13.0014lost-14-15826
23.05.26Aurora Gaming – Team FalconsTeam Falcons14.0016lost-16-15812
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0017lost-17-15796
21.05.26Stray Team – Recrent TeamStray Team14.0019lost-19-15779
20.05.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingTeam Liquid1.8017lost-17-15759
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.