Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+166u
ROI
+23.6%
win rate
71%
bets
68
drawdown
4.8%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+12u
period 2profit withdrawn+80u
period 1profit withdrawn+74u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +1936 | +20.2% | 26.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +895 | +22.1% | 17.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +339 | +23.2% | 8.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 68 | 71% | +286 | +27.8% | 5.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +166 | +23.6% | 4.8% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 68 | 71% | +163 | +23.9% | 4.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stariy_bog Team | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1166 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 1176 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1171 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1162 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1154 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1147 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1140 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Team Spirit | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 1150 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 1143 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1137 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1130 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1139 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 1.86 | 10 | won | +8 | 1149 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1141 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1151 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Aurora Gaming | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 1161 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1154 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.88 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1165 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1176 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 11 | won | +9 | 1187 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 11 | won | +6 | 1178 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 11 | won | +9 | 1172 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.54 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1162 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.82 | 11 | won | +9 | 1173 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 11 | won | +7 | 1164 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.88 | 11 | won | +9 | 1157 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 11 | won | +9 | 1148 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 11 | won | +9 | 1139 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 1131 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | 1122 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1117 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 10 | won | +7 | 1110 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1103 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | Natus Vincere | 1.57 | 10 | won | +6 | 1113 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Nemesis – GamerLegion | Team Nemesis | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1108 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1118 |
| 21.09.26 | Solo Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 1129 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | Team Nemesis | 1.64 | 10 | won | +7 | 1121 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Kalmychata | 1.55 | 10 | won | +6 | 1114 |
| 21.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1109 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 10 | won | +7 | 1119 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1112 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1103 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1114 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | Two Move | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1124 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 1115 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | uralan | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1107 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 1117 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 1111 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Stariy_Bog Club | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1102 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1094 |
| 10.09.26 | Recrent Team – Daxak Team | Recrent Team | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1086 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Klim Sani4 | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 1096 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | Natus Vincere | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1088 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1080 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1072 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Zero Tenacity | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1082 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1074 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 11 | won | +8 | 1085 |
| 29.08.26 | MOUZ – Yellow Submarine | MOUZ | 1.89 | 11 | won | +9 | 1076 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.