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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-18411u
ROI
-31.4%
win rate
62%
bets
1259
drawdown
1841.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

10% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-411u
period 24top-up-647u
period 23top-up-814u
period 22top-up-913u
period 21top-up-891u
period 20top-up-255u
period 19top-up-939u
period 18top-up-810u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll125962%-3351-29%335.2%Select
Flat (10 units)125962%-3622-28.8%362.3%Select
Martingale93461%-6045-29.6%604.5%Select
2% of bankroll125962%-6215-29.3%621.6%Select
5% of bankroll125962%-12561-30.1%1256.3%Select
10% of bankroll125962%-18411-31.4%1841.3%Selected
Quarter Kelly4898%-18852-87.5%1885.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0259won+1-17411
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0159won+1-17412
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0159won+1-17413
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0065lost-65-17413
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0165won+1-17348
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1564won+10-17349
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0164won+1-17358
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0164won+1-17359
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0264won+1-17360
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0664won+4-17361
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0071lost-71-17365
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0078lost-78-17294
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxPower Rangers1.0178won+1-17216
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0278won+2-17216
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6087lost-87-17218
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2285won+19-17131
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0385won+3-17150
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0385won+3-17152
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6094lost-94-17155
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.30104lost-104-17061
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.01104won+1-16957
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5091won+136-16958
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1581won+94-17094
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0090lost-90-17187
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.20100lost-100-17097
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.01100won+1-16996
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.03100won+3-16997
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0039lost-39-17000
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0139won+0-16961
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5044lost-44-16962
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0040won+40-16918
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0140won+0-16958
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3538won+13-16958
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.0138won+0-16971
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0042lost-42-16972
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0047lost-47-16929
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0052lost-52-16882
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0252won+1-16830
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0058lost-58-16831
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0064lost-64-16773
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6072lost-72-16709
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5080lost-80-16637
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9273won+67-16557
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Lynx1.5281lost-81-16624
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0090lost-90-16543
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2588won+22-16453
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0098lost-98-16475
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0197won+1-16378
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.1296won+12-16379
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingBETBOOM Team1.0396won+3-16390
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0496won+4-16393
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingTeam Liquid1.0196won+1-16397
12.07.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0895won+8-16398
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.90105lost-105-16406
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.02105won+2-16300
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.01105won+1-16302
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.02105won+2-16303
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.01105won+1-16306
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.01105won+1-16307
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.01104won+1-16308
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.