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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+1936u
ROI
+20.2%
win rate
71%
bets
68
drawdown
26.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+74u
period 2profit withdrawn+892u
period 1profit withdrawn+970u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll6871%+1936+20.2%26.3%Selected
5% of bankroll6871%+895+22.1%17.1%Select
2% of bankroll6871%+339+23.2%8.7%Select
Martingale6871%+286+27.8%5.6%Select
1% of bankroll6871%+166+23.6%4.8%Select
Flat (10 units)6871%+163+23.9%4.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88119lost-1192936
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54113won+613055
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82105won+862994
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8297won+802908
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7090won+642828
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7084won+592765
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8794lost-942705
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6888won+602799
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6982won+572739
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7277won+552682
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7585lost-852627
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6694lost-942712
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8687won+752806
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7697lost-972732
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85107lost-1072829
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.74100won+742936
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.74210lost-2102862
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.88234lost-2343072
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.43260lost-2603306
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.82240won+1983565
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.53228won+1213367
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.86210won+1803247
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.54233lost-2333067
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.82215won+1773300
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.64202won+1303123
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.88186won+1632993
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.82172won+1412829
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.81159won+1292689
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.79147won+1172560
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.50140won+702443
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.72131won+942373
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.66123won+812279
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.58136lost-1362198
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w TeamNatus Vincere1.57129won+732334
22.09.26Team Nemesis – GamerLegionTeam Nemesis1.74144lost-1442261
21.09.26YBN Team – NS TeamYBN Team1.83159lost-1592405
21.09.26Solo Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.71149won+1062564
21.09.26Team Nemesis – MOUZTeam Nemesis1.64140won+902459
21.09.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.55133won+732369
21.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.87147lost-1472296
20.09.26Inner Circle – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.65138won+902444
20.09.26PlayTime – Team CobraTeam Cobra1.89127won+1132354
20.09.26Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme GamingConventus Stellarum1.89141lost-1412241
19.09.26LGD Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.82157lost-1572382
18.09.26uralan – Two MoveTwo Move1.89144won+1282539
18.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.79134won+1062412
17.09.26Kalmychata – uralanuralan1.82148lost-1482306
17.09.26Nemiga Gaming – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.62140won+872455
16.09.26Inner Circle – uralanuralan1.87129won+1122367
13.09.26Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog ClubStariy_Bog Club1.77119won+922255
12.09.26Team Nemesis – InterActive PhilippinesTeam Nemesis1.82110won+912163
10.09.26Recrent Team – Daxak TeamRecrent Team1.89123lost-1232072
09.09.26Klim Sani4 – Inner CircleKlim Sani41.74114won+842195
09.09.26Natus Vincere – GamerLegionNatus Vincere1.82105won+872111
08.09.26MOUZ – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.8297won+802024
07.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.81108lost-1081944
01.09.26Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit AcademyZero Tenacity1.83100won+832052
30.08.26Natus Vincere – MOUZMOUZ1.88219lost-2191970
29.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit AcademyKlim Sani41.77203won+1562189
29.08.26MOUZ – Yellow SubmarineMOUZ1.89187won+1662032
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.