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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-6215u
ROI
-29.3%
win rate
62%
bets
1259
drawdown
621.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-92u
period 24top-up-178u
period 23top-up-271u
period 22top-up-370u
period 21top-up-342u
period 20top-up-49u
period 19top-up-415u
period 18top-up-264u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll125962%-3351-29%335.2%Select
Flat (10 units)125962%-3622-28.8%362.3%Select
Martingale93461%-6045-29.6%604.5%Select
2% of bankroll125962%-6215-29.3%621.6%Select
5% of bankroll125962%-12561-30.1%1256.3%Select
10% of bankroll125962%-18411-31.4%1841.3%Select
Quarter Kelly4898%-18852-87.5%1885.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0218won+0-5215
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0118won+0-5215
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0118won+0-5216
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0019lost-19-5216
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0119won+0-5197
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1518won+3-5198
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0118won+0-5200
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0118won+0-5200
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0218won+0-5201
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0618won+1-5201
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0019lost-19-5202
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0019lost-19-5183
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxPower Rangers1.0119won+0-5164
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0219won+0-5164
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6020lost-20-5165
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2219won+4-5145
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0319won+1-5149
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0319won+1-5150
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6020lost-20-5151
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3020lost-20-5131
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0120won+0-5110
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5020won+29-5111
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1519won+22-5140
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0020lost-20-5162
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2020lost-20-5143
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0120won+0-5123
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0320won+1-5123
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0017lost-17-5123
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0117won+0-5107
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5017lost-17-5107
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0017won+17-5090
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0117won+0-5107
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3517won+6-5107
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.0117won+0-5113
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0017lost-17-5113
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0017lost-17-5096
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0018lost-18-5078
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0218won+0-5061
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0018lost-18-5061
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0018lost-18-5043
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6019lost-19-5024
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5019lost-19-5006
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9219won+17-4986
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Lynx1.5219lost-19-5004
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0020lost-20-4985
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2520won+5-4965
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0020lost-20-4970
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0120won+0-4950
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.1220won+2-4950
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingBETBOOM Team1.0320won+1-4953
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0420won+1-4953
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingTeam Liquid1.0120won+0-4954
12.07.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0820won+2-4954
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9020lost-20-4956
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0220won+0-4935
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0120won+0-4936
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0220won+0-4936
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0120won+0-4936
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.0120won+0-4937
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.0120won+0-4937
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.